A predictive model that can forecast the spread of viral messages across the Internet has been published by e-business and mathematical researchers.

SEO firms, online marketers and consultants will be interested in the findings that demonstrate an ability to understand how new information spreads when it is propagated on the worldwide web.

Known colloquially as 'going viral', these online messages or Internet memes can sometimes spread rapidly.

According to the researchers, it is possible to predict how many people will receive the memes to within a 1% error rate.

The match between prediction and result using the model has been described as "remarkable" in the New Scientist magazine.

Useful research for SEO firms, marketers and consultants

Some people spread memes quickly, others delay doing so while some do not pass them along at all. The model used to analyse the spread of viral information is based on tools that analyse the spread of biological viruses.

For the real life swine flu virus, the model used helps forecast how the current pandemic would spread, predicting how many other people might be infected by the virus.

However, for viral messages on the Internet, the model could only indicate whether a meme would be successful or die out quickly.

SEO firm Fuse: "Significant discovery"

Mark Chapman, e-business marketing lead at Fuse Optimisation in Chichester, said the findings were potentially a significant commercial discovery.

"E-business, online marketing and websites are frequently concerned with analytics - statistical information about numbers of would-be customers that can be converted to leads, sales or, say, website traffic.

"This notable research now offers a model to businesses with e-commerce operations that allows them to quantify the potential success, or otherwise, of viral and social media marketing. It will be interesting to watch if this does develop into a recognised commercial tool," he said.

The New Scientist article stated there was more to discover, saying people may vary in infectiousness depending on the type of content they receive.

Commercial benefits for SEO firm

The research was carried out by Esteban Moro in a Madrid university working with José Luis Iribarren, one of IBM's leading e-business experts.

Analysing distribution of an IBM company email, they tracked the speed and reach of a newsletter. It had reached more than 31,000 people after two months.

A prize draw incentive to help spread the email was used. On average, people took 1.5 days to respond - but some passed along the message in minutes and others took months.

Fuse's Mark Chapman said it was possible for SEO firms to capitalise on the research findings by analysing their own link-building, social media and content distribution work.

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